(Note: I'll be off the sports desk at The Daily Home at the end of football season, a move that many will likely welcome all too happily. Nevertheless, I'm offering the rest of football season to this blog, such as I can give. But I digress.)
You may recall my preseason predictions back in August -- aka, the last time I logged any significant time on the blog. Much of the time, analysts for the various big media outlets make preseason predictions, then carry on as if nothing had happened.
I intend to hold my own feet to the fire here -- through 5 weeks, here's how my preseason predictions are panning out.
Coosa Valley Academy
- Predicted finish: 6-5
- Currently: 3-2 (3-1 region)
- Analysis: Thus far, our view on CVA looks to be right on track. The loss to Cornerstone in Week 3 really hurt, but the Rebs bounced back nicely, even finding some offensive rhythm last week in an easy win over SMCA. The next two weeks will likely tell the tale: if the Rebs pick up a win vs. either Ashford or Chambers, they'll be in excellent position to pick up that elusive playoff berth.
- Adjusted prediction: 5-5, first round AISA playoffs.
- Predicted finish: 3-7
- Currently: 3-2
- Analysis: The Silent Warriors are better than I'd anticipated, even finding some new playmakers to replace last season's seniors in Kwentavious Boyd and Heriberto Nunez. The loss to Indiana likely knocked them out of the national championship hunt, but every game left on their schedule looks winnable. It's the vote of confidence Paul Kulick needs in his fourth season.
- Adjusted prediction: 7-3
- Predicted finish: 7-3
- Currently: 0-5 (0-3)
- Analysis: No team was hurt by injuries like Jimmy Wright's group -- not only did Fayetteville lose starting quarterback Cameron Shaw to a knee injury, but the Wolves lost backup QB Andrew Scott and lineman Adam Fulmer to knee and ankle problems, as well. Essentially, the entire workload has fallen on the shoulders of poor Billy Lawson, who's struggled mightily but simply can't do it all himself. Too bad, really.
- Adjusted prediction: 2-8
- Predicted finish: 11-2
- Currently: 3-2 (3-0)
- Analysis: Ragland is no longer the odds-on favorite to win Region 5 -- that honor belongs to Appalachian, after the way they handled Westbrook Christian last Friday (the same Westbrook that drilled the Purple Devils in Week 1). But everything else from the preseason stands. That matchup in Week 9 is still the region championship. And pretty much everything else is moot.
- Adjusted prediction: 10-3, third round.
- Predicted finish: 10-3
- Currently: 4-1 (3-0)
- Analysis: At the moment, TC looks like a solid favorite to win their region, again, with their biggest win coming over Wadley in Week 4. The next three weeks look relatively easy -- at Notasulga, vs. Verbena and at Fayetteville -- before a trip to Loachapoka in Week 9. Probably for the region title.
- Adjusted prediction: 11-2, fourth round.
- Predicted finish: 6-4
- Currently: 4-1 (2-1)
- Analysis: Everything has aligned perfectly for the Lions, who proved they could play with the region's best in a narrow loss to Ragland, then followed that up with three straight wins, including one at ASD (arguably their biggest win in the program's history). They're on the precipice of the biggest stretch of the season -- at Appalachian, at Parkway. Right now, they look like the 3 from Region 5. Which is a huge, huge statement.
- Adjusted prediction: 7-3, first round.
- Predicted finish: 3-7
- Currently: 2-3 (2-1)
- Analysis: The Bulldogs are a classic case of "better to be lucky than good." They've thus far won the games they should be winning -- at a beleaguered Fayetteville team and at a frightfully young Donoho. The next two games look impossible -- vs. Loachapoka, at Wadley -- but after that, a pair of winnable games (Notasulga, Verbena) will likely catapult Adam Fossett's crew into the playoffs. And so what if that's a one-way ticket to Maplesville?
- Adjusted prediction: 4-7, first round
- Predicted finish: 5-5
- Currently: 0-5 (0-3)
- Analysis: B.B. Comer head coach Tripp Henderson has been testy since the season began, and with good reason -- his squad lost winnable games at Montevallo and home against Central-Coosa the last two weeks, and was barely competitive in the first three weeks. There are a few wins left on the schedule -- at Marbury, vs. Beulah -- but they're still at least a year away.
- Adjusted prediction: 2-8
- Predicted finish: 4-6
- Currently: 2-3 (1-3)
- Analysis: The season thus far has seen one pleasant surprise -- Fabian Garrett -- and one familiar story -- the Tigers commit too many dumb penalties, can't get defensive stops when they need them and still look a few plays short of being a playoff contender. They still have Handley and Heflin remaining on their schedule, which ain't good.
- Adjusted prediction: 3-7
- Predicted finish: 12-2
- Currently: 5-0 (3-0)
- Analysis: The scary thing about Lincoln: they haven't been completely healthy yet this season. And they're good enough to coast through the schedule until Week 9 (no way they skate against Munford). I think it's completely fair to call the Bears one of the five best in 4A right now.
- Adjusted prediction: 13-1, fourth round
- Predicted finish: 6-4
- Currently: 2-3 (1-3)
- Analysis: Everything written about them in preseason stands, with the exception that now I think they're good enough to grab the fourth spot in the region and make the playoffs. That's a much bigger step than you realize for Todd Smith's program.
- Adjusted prediction: 7-5, second round
- Predicted finish: 7-4
- Currently: 3-2 (0-2)
- Analysis: Sylacauga has ridden the back of running back Josh Crowe through the first five weeks of the season, and the combination of him and quarterback Kelsey Pope means the Aggies can score points against anybody. The importance of this week's game against Chelsea can't be over-stated -- Sylacauga's going for its first region win and to stay alive in the playoff hunt. I think they regained some of their swagger against Childersburg, and every game left on the schedule looks winnable.
- Adjusted prediction: 6-5, first round
- Predicted finish: 2-8
- Currently: 1-4 (1-3)
- Analysis: The good news: Talladega's shown a significant amount of grit and determination, and has a quarterback (Craig Granger) who's not intimidated by any deficit against any team. The bad news: the second half of their schedule is much tougher than the first half.
- Adjusted prediction: 2-8
- Predicted finish: 6-4
- Currently: 2-3 (1-3)
- Analysis: Jay Brown's Panthers haven't been this bad offensively since his tenure began there, but the transition period has simply gotten them clocked in three of their first five games. In fact, if not for a 17-point fourth quarter against Shades Valley, the Panthers would likely be 1-4 right now, with no region wins. They're tougher defensively, but they still have Gadsden and Oxford left on the schedule. Yikes.
- Adjusted prediction: 5-5
0 comments:
Post a Comment